Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage
by Kenneth S. Deffeyes
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There are several popular books on this topic, but Deffeyes' is probably the best. He is uniquely suited to write about the subject. His father worked in the oil industry, and so did he. He still loves it. But he was also a Princeton professor, and thus has a knack for explaining difficult topics. Though it covers some difficult material, the book is written with engaging humor and enthusiasm. If the book has a flaw, it's that it does get awfully heavy at times. Deffeyes explains everything you ever wanted to know about oil geology. For some, that may be too much. But for others, who want to know if drilling deeper or using better recovery techniques can save us from Hubbert's Peak - the answer is no, and this book explains why, complete with charts and diagrams. Deffeyes' view of the impending oil crisis is essentially optimistic. He thinks it will be short-lived, though harsh, and we will be able to make the transition to alternate energy sources without too much difficulty. Others take a much dimmer view of our fate after the Peak. (See The Party's Over by Richard Heinberg or Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil by David Goodstein. They take a thermodynamic approach, and argue that alternative energy sources can't provide a substitute for oil.) We can only hope Deffeyes is right. Hubbert's methods predict that the world oil peak will hit sometime this decade; some think it is already upon us. This paperback edition has been updated with data from the years since the hardcover version was first published in 2001. There's also a new preface by the author. He says that so far, the data is turning out just as predicted. Actually, he thinks Hubbert's Peak might already have come, in 2000. Production has fallen since that year. Perhaps that's just because of the global recession. Or is it the increasing scarcity of oil that caused the recession? In any case, this is an excellent, informative book on a disturbing topic that we should all be more concerned about.
Sample Chapter - The first chapter of the book. Hubbert Peak of Oil Production - A huge Web site devoted to the subject, frequently updated. A lot of expert knowledge. If you want to know more, go here. The Peak Of World Oil Production And The Road To The Olduvai Gorge - The worst-case scenario. Hubbert's Peak Resources A brief introduction to world oil depletion - Great intro for beginners, complete but brief, with tons of great links. When Will the Joy Ride End? - Another great intro for beginners. Less detailed, but easy to read, and very funny in places.
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History proved Hubbert right. The U.S. oil peak was in 1970. Oh, there is still American oil being produced, but not nearly enough to supply our needs. We are now dependent on imported oil. And that, according to Deffeyes, will soon present a much larger problem than the Middle East political morass (horrendous as that is). The world peak of oil production is coming, after which oil production will decline forever. That might not be so bad, except that oil demand is rising steeply, not just in the U.S., but around the world, as developing countries modernize. The difference between supply and demand will grow larger and larger, and produce an oil crisis that will put the one we experienced in the '70s to shame.